Editorial Staff

New Study Highlights Economic Fallout from California’s 2012 Tax Hike

/in , , , /by Editorial Staff
Share on Facebook
Share on Twitter
Share on
LinkedIn
+

BOSTON – A 2012 income and sales tax increase in California, named “Proposition 30,” stifled business activity, accelerated out-migration among the wealthy, and ultimately reduced the state’s tax base, according to a new study published by Pioneer Institute that aims to share empirical data about the impact of tax policy decisions.

“The academic literature on Proposition 30 is among the strongest evidence we have that behavioral responses to tax hikes occur disproportionately among the wealthy,” said Andrew Mikula, author of “How a 2012 income tax hike cost California billions of dollars in economic activity.”

The new paper draws on a 2019 study from the National Bureau of Economic Research that examined behavior responses to Proposition 30, finding that such responses “eroded 60.9% of [new] tax revenues by [the law’s] second year.” This led the 2019 paper’s authors to speculate that California may be able to increase state tax revenues by reducing tax rates on certain high-income households, which may result in more incentive to generate income and less incentive to engage in tax avoidance activities. The authors also found that for those Californians earning over $5 million, the rate of departures spiked 42 percent, from 1.5 percent after the 2011 tax year to 2.125 percent after the 2012 tax year.

In other cases, higher income taxes directly affect pass-through businesses, which pay taxes through the individual returns of their owners, rather than through company returns. In California, sole proprietorships alone account for some $150 billion in economic activity every quarter, and this amount doesn’t include S corporations, partnerships, limited liability companies, and other forms of pass-through entities.

Many pass-through businesses have gone on to become large, successful corporations, such as Marriott, JCPenney, Walmart, Kinko’s, and eBay, the latter two of which were founded in California. But in a harsh tax and regulatory climate for businesses, in the words of Elon Musk, California “has a forest of redwoods and the little trees can’t grow.”

California’s state budget is heavily reliant on the wealthy. In 2019, 40 percent of individual income tax revenue came from filers with incomes over $1 million. Continuing to rely on revenue from such a narrow slice of the population for core services like education is unsustainable, likely increasing revenue volatility and necessitating harsh budget cuts during future recessions.

“A CEO who wants to leave California, where the nearest abutting state is a four-hour drive from a major economic center, has to hire all new people and put the company’s customer base at risk, and they are still leaving,” said Pioneer Institute Executive Director Jim Stergios. “For Massachusetts CEOs the calculus on moving is simpler. If we pass the graduated income tax, every other New England state will boast lower top income tax rates than Massachusetts. Even Connecticut, which has suffered job losses, an exodus of businesses, and tax revenue difficulties because of its own bad tax policies, will have a lower top rate than Massachusetts.”

About the Author

Andrew Mikula is Economic Research Analyst at Pioneer Institute. Mr. Mikula was previously a Lovett & Ruth Peters Economic Opportunity Fellow at Pioneer Institute and studied economics at Bates College.

About Pioneer

Pioneer’s mission is to develop and communicate dynamic ideas that advance prosperity and a vibrant civic life in Massachusetts and beyond.

Pioneer’s vision of success is a state and nation where our people can prosper and our society thrive because we enjoy world-class options in education, healthcare, transportation, and economic opportunity, and where our government is limited, accountable and transparent.

Pioneer values an America where our citizenry is well-educated and willing to test our beliefs based on facts and the free exchange of ideas, and committed to liberty, personal responsibility, and free enterprise.

Get Updates on Our Economic Opportunity Research

Related Posts:

Study Suggests How to Advance Fairness, Predictability of “Payment in Lieu of Taxes” Programs Aimed at Nonprofits

A new white paper by Pioneer Institute calls for increased transparency over the basis for payment in lieu of taxes (“PILOT”) agreements between municipal governments and nonprofit organizations, while also encouraging nonprofits to publicize and expand the community benefits they provide.

Public Statement on Implementation of the Charitable Giving Deduction

Despite being awash in cash, the state Legislature just overrode Gov. Charlie Baker’s veto of a provision to delay by yet another year a tax deduction for charitable donations. Rep. Mark Cusack, House chair of the Joint Committee on Revenue, said “it doesn’t mean no, just not now.” If not now, when?

Employment trends in the Greater Boston Area and Touristy Massachusetts Counties during the COVID-19 Pandemic

0 Comments
/
Using MassEconomix, Pioneer Institute’s database on employment…

Ely Kaplansky Goes from Immigrant to Inc. 5000 Insurance Entrepreneur

This week on JobMakers, host Denzil Mohammed talks with Ely Kaplansky, President & CEO of Kaplansky Insurance. Since 1974, Ely has created hundreds of jobs in Massachusetts and beyond, with 85 employees in 15 offices across the state today, and he has grown his business during the pandemic, such that Kaplansky Insurance was named to Inc. magazine’s "5000 Fastest-Growing Private Companies in America" list. His success fulfilled the dreams of his parents when they moved from Israel to America in 1955, with just the clothes on their backs and an aunt to take them in. Their journey began in the concentration camps of Germany, and Ely’s story is all about the opportunity and freedom America offers.

Umesh Bhuju Seeks a Fair Deal for Immigrants, Farmers & the Environment

This week on JobMakers, Host Denzil Mohammed talks with Umesh Bhuju, owner of Zumi’s Espresso in Ipswich, Massachusetts, about how a business model based on selling nothing but fair-trade products can thrive in a world driven by profit. He describes his early experiences in his homeland of Nepal, where he witnessed child labor, and how that has shaped his pursuit of the American dream.

Study Says Massachusetts Surtax Proposal Could Reduce Taxable Income in the State by Over $2 Billion

As voters now begin to weigh the potential impact of a ballot proposal to increase taxes on business owners, retirees and wealthier households, a new literature review by Pioneer Institute shows that many existing academic studies find that wealthy individuals are particularly sensitive to changes in tax policy. Other studies explicitly warn policymakers that behavioral responses to taxing the rich could erode the tax base and ultimately strain state budgets.

COVID-19 and Unemployment Rates in the Cape and Islands 

0 Comments
/
  The COVID-19 pandemic has had a large impact on unemployment…

This Is No Time for a Tax Increase

This is no time to threaten Massachusetts’ prospects for an immediate economic recovery and the long-term competitiveness of the Commonwealth’s businesses. As Massachusetts lawmakers prepare to vote on whether to send a proposed constitutional amendment that would impose a 4 percent surtax on residents who earn $1 million or more in a year to the statewide ballot in 2022, Pioneer Institute urges them to recognize that tax policy sizably impacts business and job location decisions and that jobs are more mobile than ever.

Putting in the Extra Hours: The Spike in Mass. Department of Public Health Overtime Pay during COVID-19

During the heat of the COVID-19 pandemic, Massachusetts Department of Public Health (DPH) payroll data presented a 29.09% increase in the average employee’s overtime pay from the previous year. Pioneer wanted to dig deeper into the Department’s compensation trends to put the $5M bump in 2020 DPH overtime pay into perspective.

Jitka Borowick on Starting a Small Business during COVID

0 Comments
/
This week on JobMakers, Guest Host Jo Napolitano talks with Jitka Borowick, Founder & CEO of Cleangreen, a cleaning service committed to environmentally-friendly practices, and Nove Yoga, launched during COVID. Jitka grew up under communism in the Czech Republic. Determined to learn English, she made her way to the U.S., initially with plans to stay for only one year - but ended up making it her home. Jitka shares the difficulties of learning another language and culture, her pathway to entrepreneurship, her courageous decision to open a new business during a pandemic, and how her companies have successfully adapted to the challenges so many small businesses have encountered over the past year.
Are Massachusetts taxes regressive? Massachusetts State with Money Background

Study Finds Deep Flaws in Advocates’ Claims that the Massachusetts Tax Code is Regressive

Proponents of a state constitutional amendment to add a 4 percent surtax on all households with annual income above $1 million frequently cite 2015 data from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, which argues that the Massachusetts tax code is regressive, but a new study published by Pioneer Institute debunks many of the underlying assumptions used in ITEP’s 2015 report.

Mahmud Jafri Builds on a Pakistani Legacy in America

This week on JobMakers, Host Denzil Mohammed talks with Mahmud Jafri, who built on a legacy started by his grandfather and began importing hand-knitted rugs from his native Pakistan, creating opportunities especially for women who traditionally couldn’t work outside the home. Today, he has three Dover Rug & Home stores across Massachusetts, including the Back Bay.

Study Says Interstate Tax Competition, Relocation Subsidies Exacerbate Telecommuting Trends

A spate of new incentive and subsidy programs seeking to lure talented workers and innovative businesses away from their home states could constitute an additional challenge to Massachusetts’ economic and fiscal recovery from COVID-19, according to a new study published by Pioneer Institute.

7 Reasons to Reject the Graduated Tax and Instead Focus on Growing Jobs

Pioneer Institute's Statement before the Joint Committee on Revenue In Opposition to: HB 86 (Pages 1-4), a legislative amendment to the Constitution to provide resources for education and transportation through an additional tax on incomes in excess of one million dollars.

Study Warns Massachusetts Tax Proposal Would Deter Investment, Stifling the “Innovation Economy”

A state constitutional amendment promoted by the Massachusetts Teachers Association and the Service Employees International Union adding a 4 percent surtax to all annual income above $1 million could devastate innovative startups dependent on Boston’s financial services industry for funding, ultimately hampering the region’s recovery from the COVID-19 economic recession, according to a new study published by Pioneer Institute.

Study Shows the Adverse Effects of Graduated Income Tax Proposal on Small Businesses

The state constitutional amendment promoted by the Massachusetts Teachers Association and the Service Employees International Union to add a 4 percent surtax to all annual income above $1 million will adversely impact a significant number of pass-through businesses, ultimately slowing the Commonwealth’s economic recovery from COVID-19, according to a new study published by Pioneer Institute.