Editorial Staff

New Study Highlights Economic Fallout from California’s 2012 Tax Hike

/in , , , /by Editorial Staff
Share on Facebook
Share on Twitter
Share on
LinkedIn
+

BOSTON – A 2012 income and sales tax increase in California, named “Proposition 30,” stifled business activity, accelerated out-migration among the wealthy, and ultimately reduced the state’s tax base, according to a new study published by Pioneer Institute that aims to share empirical data about the impact of tax policy decisions.

“The academic literature on Proposition 30 is among the strongest evidence we have that behavioral responses to tax hikes occur disproportionately among the wealthy,” said Andrew Mikula, author of “How a 2012 income tax hike cost California billions of dollars in economic activity.”

The new paper draws on a 2019 study from the National Bureau of Economic Research that examined behavior responses to Proposition 30, finding that such responses “eroded 60.9% of [new] tax revenues by [the law’s] second year.” This led the 2019 paper’s authors to speculate that California may be able to increase state tax revenues by reducing tax rates on certain high-income households, which may result in more incentive to generate income and less incentive to engage in tax avoidance activities. The authors also found that for those Californians earning over $5 million, the rate of departures spiked 42 percent, from 1.5 percent after the 2011 tax year to 2.125 percent after the 2012 tax year.

In other cases, higher income taxes directly affect pass-through businesses, which pay taxes through the individual returns of their owners, rather than through company returns. In California, sole proprietorships alone account for some $150 billion in economic activity every quarter, and this amount doesn’t include S corporations, partnerships, limited liability companies, and other forms of pass-through entities.

Many pass-through businesses have gone on to become large, successful corporations, such as Marriott, JCPenney, Walmart, Kinko’s, and eBay, the latter two of which were founded in California. But in a harsh tax and regulatory climate for businesses, in the words of Elon Musk, California “has a forest of redwoods and the little trees can’t grow.”

California’s state budget is heavily reliant on the wealthy. In 2019, 40 percent of individual income tax revenue came from filers with incomes over $1 million. Continuing to rely on revenue from such a narrow slice of the population for core services like education is unsustainable, likely increasing revenue volatility and necessitating harsh budget cuts during future recessions.

“A CEO who wants to leave California, where the nearest abutting state is a four-hour drive from a major economic center, has to hire all new people and put the company’s customer base at risk, and they are still leaving,” said Pioneer Institute Executive Director Jim Stergios. “For Massachusetts CEOs the calculus on moving is simpler. If we pass the graduated income tax, every other New England state will boast lower top income tax rates than Massachusetts. Even Connecticut, which has suffered job losses, an exodus of businesses, and tax revenue difficulties because of its own bad tax policies, will have a lower top rate than Massachusetts.”

About the Author

Andrew Mikula is Economic Research Analyst at Pioneer Institute. Mr. Mikula was previously a Lovett & Ruth Peters Economic Opportunity Fellow at Pioneer Institute and studied economics at Bates College.

About Pioneer

Pioneer’s mission is to develop and communicate dynamic ideas that advance prosperity and a vibrant civic life in Massachusetts and beyond.

Pioneer’s vision of success is a state and nation where our people can prosper and our society thrive because we enjoy world-class options in education, healthcare, transportation, and economic opportunity, and where our government is limited, accountable and transparent.

Pioneer values an America where our citizenry is well-educated and willing to test our beliefs based on facts and the free exchange of ideas, and committed to liberty, personal responsibility, and free enterprise.

Get Updates on Our Economic Opportunity Research

Related Posts:

Study Warns Massachusetts Tax Proposal Would Deter Investment, Stifling the “Innovation Economy”

A state constitutional amendment promoted by the Massachusetts Teachers Association and the Service Employees International Union adding a 4 percent surtax to all annual income above $1 million could devastate innovative startups dependent on Boston’s financial services industry for funding, ultimately hampering the region’s recovery from the COVID-19 economic recession, according to a new study published by Pioneer Institute.

Study Shows the Adverse Effects of Graduated Income Tax Proposal on Small Businesses

The state constitutional amendment promoted by the Massachusetts Teachers Association and the Service Employees International Union to add a 4 percent surtax to all annual income above $1 million will adversely impact a significant number of pass-through businesses, ultimately slowing the Commonwealth’s economic recovery from COVID-19, according to a new study published by Pioneer Institute.

Study: Graduated Income Tax Proposal Fails to Protect Taxpayers from Bracket Creep

The state constitutional amendment proposed by the Service Employees International Union and the Massachusetts Teachers Association to add a 4 percent surtax to all annual income above $1 million purports to use cost-of-living-based bracket adjustments as a safeguard that will ensure only millionaires will pay. But historic income growth trends suggest that bracket creep will cause many non-millionaires to be subject to the surtax over time, according to a new study published by Pioneer Institute.

Pioneer Institute, The Immigrant Learning Center Co-Produce New Weekly Podcast

Pioneer Institute is pleased to announce the launch of JobMakers, a new weekly podcast that explores the world of risk-taking immigrants who create new products, services, and jobs in New England and across the United States. JobMakers is produced in collaboration with The Immigrant Learning Center (ILC) of Malden, MA.

New Study Warns Graduated Income Tax Will Harm Many Massachusetts Retirees

If passed, a constitutional amendment to impose a graduated income tax would raid the retirement plans of Massachusetts residents by pushing their owners into higher tax brackets on the sales of homes and businesses, according to a new study published by Pioneer Institute. The study, entitled “The Graduated Income Tax Trap: A retirement tax on small business owners,” aims to help the public fully understand the impact of the proposed new tax.

Study: Graduated Income Tax Proponents Rely on Analyses That Exclude the Vast Majority Of “Millionaires” to Argue Their Case

Advocates for a state constitutional amendment that would apply a 4 percent surtax to households with annual earnings of more than $1 million rely heavily on the assumption that these proposed taxes will have little impact on the mobility of high earners. They cite analyses by Cornell University Associate Professor Cristobal Young, which exclude the vast majority of millionaires, according to a new study published by Pioneer Institute.

Report Contrasts State Government and Private Sector Employment Changes During Pandemic

Massachusetts state government employment has been virtually flat during COVID-19 even as employment in the state’s private sector workforce remains nearly 10 percent below pre-pandemic levels, according to a new study published by Pioneer Institute. The study, “Public vs. Private Employment in Massachusetts: A Tale of Two Pandemics,” questions whether it makes sense to shield public agencies from last year’s recession at the expense of taxpayers.

A wealth tax, a SCOTUS case, and a likely Mass. exodus

0 Comments
/
Op-ed in The Boston Globe: A case New Hampshire filed with the US Supreme Court last October against the Commonwealth of Massachusetts could have a huge impact on state finances nationwide. It also raises the stakes as the Massachusetts Legislature considers amending the state constitution to eliminate the state’s prohibition against a graduated income tax and to hike taxes on high earners.

Study Finds Massachusetts Graduated Income Tax May Be a “Blank Check” and Not Increase Funding for Designated Priorities

Advocates claim a proposed 4 percent surtax on high earners will raise nearly $2 billion per year for education and transportation, but similar tax hikes in other states resulted in highly discretionary rather than targeted spending, according to a new policy brief published by Pioneer Institute. That same result or worse is possible in Massachusetts because during the 2019 constitutional convention state legislators rejected — not just one, but two — proposed amendments requiring that the new revenues be directed to these purposes.

Enacting ‘Millionaires’ Taxes’ Will Set Back State Recoveries

0 Comments
/
Even as countless citizens and businesses are struggling, many state governments are faced with large deficits that hinder their ability to help. As a result, some, such as Massachusetts, are considering raising taxes on high-earners to generate revenue. But in its report, “Connecticut’s Dangerous Game: How the Nation’s Wealthiest State Scared Off Businesses and Worsened Its Financial Crisis,” the Boston-based Pioneer Institute provides a cautionary tale about the dangers of going down the path taken by the Bay State’s neighbor, Connecticut.

Report: Proposed Graduated Income Tax Might Not Increase State Education and Transportation Spending

While supporters of a state constitutional amendment that would impose a 4 percent tax rate hike on annual income over $1 million claim additional revenue from the surtax will fund public education and transportation needs, the amendment in no way assures that there will be new spending on these priorities. In fact, without violating the amendment, total state education and transportation funding could stay the same or even fall, according to a new review published by Pioneer Institute.

New Study Highlights Economic Fallout from California’s 2012 Tax Hike

A 2012 income and sales tax increase in California, named “Proposition 30,” stifled business activity, accelerated out-migration among the wealthy, and ultimately reduced the state’s tax base, according to a new study published by Pioneer Institute that aims to share empirical data about the impact of tax policy decisions.

Wealth Migration Trends: Remote Work Technology Empowers Workers to Live Anywhere

0 Comments
/
Host Joe Selvaggi talks with Pioneer Institute’s Andrew Mikula about his recent research into migration trends of high-income individuals, how pandemic-related technologies may accelerate that movement, and what challenges these changes present for policy makers.

New Study Finds Pandemic-Spurred Technologies Lowered Barriers to Exit in High-Cost States

Both employers and households will find it easier to leave major job centers as technologies made commonplace by the COVID-19 pandemic have led to a rethinking of the geography of work, according to a new study published by Pioneer Institute.

Interstate Legal Skirmish: New Hampshire Takes Massachusetts Telecommuter Tax to the Supreme Court

0 Comments
/
Host Joe Selvaggi talks with legal scholar and George Mason University Law Professor Ilya Somin about the details, the merits, and the likely implications of the Supreme Court case, New Hampshire v. Massachusetts, on state taxation power, federalism, and the power to vote with one’s feet.

Connecticut’s Painful Journey: Wealth Squandered, Lessons Learned, Promise Explored

0 Comments
/
Host Joe Selvaggi talks with Connecticut Business and Industry Association’s President and CEO, Chris DiPentima, about what policy makers can learn from Connecticut’s journey from the wealthiest state in the nation, to one with more than a decade of negative job growth.