Editorial Staff

Proposition 80 Won’t Generate $1.9 Billion Annual Projected Revenue

/in , , , , /by Editorial Staff
Share on Facebook
Share on Twitter
Share on
LinkedIn
+

Passage of November 2018 ballot measure will make Massachusetts far less competitive

BOSTON – Passage of Proposition 80, the tax hike proposal scheduled to appear on the November 2018 Massachusetts ballot, will fail to generate the level of revenue growth projected by its backers, according to a new Pioneer study.

Download "Proposition 80 Will Not Raise $2 Billion"

The ballot measure would add a 4 percent surtax on any annual taxable income over $1 million. In “Proposition 80 Will Not Raise $2 Billion and the Money Won’t Be Free,” Pioneer Institute Research Director Greg Sullivan warns that proponents’ projected revenue gains are based on a small pool of taxpayers, some of whom are likely to relocate outside the state if the proposal passes.

According to Massachusetts Department of Revenue data, the majority of the tax revenue Proposition 80 is expected to raise would derive from just 897 of the 19,565 taxpayers who would be subject to the measure. Over time, if even a third of those 897 chose to move, annual revenue from the tax would fall from an anticipated $1.9 billion to $1.1 billion.

The report further finds that there is a high likelihood that they will relocate, given that states with lower tax rates have historically held a distinct advantage in attracting and retaining businesses and wealthy taxpayers.

From 2011–12 to 2014–15, the eight states with no income tax saw a net positive migration of adjusted gross income (AGI) of $65 billion, more than 60 percent of which came from the small percentage of taxpayers with annual AGIs of $200,000 or more. During that same period, the eight states with the highest marginal income tax rates experienced negative AGI migration of $44.23 billion, over 60 percent of which resulted from the relatively small number of migrants with annual incomes of $200,000 or more.

“Those who argue that state tax rates don’t impact where high earners choose to live and where businesses choose to locate inhabit an alternate reality,” said Pioneer Institute Executive Director Jim Stergios. “Proposition 80 backers paint it as a harmless way to boost revenue, but its adoption would pose a direct threat to business and job creation in Massachusetts.”

IRS records show that over 70 percent of Massa­chusetts’ 16,100 taxpayers with AGI over $1 million in 2015 received income from partnerships and sub-chapter S corpo­rations. Proposition 80 would raise the combined federal/state tax rate on partnership and sub-S corporations from 26th to between the second and fourth highest in the U.S.

Large, medium and small businesses alike will face adverse consequences. Small business­es account for nearly half of total employment in Massachusetts. The report features case studies illustrating Proposition 80’s potential impact on three Massachusetts firms:  The RMR Group Inc. in Newton, Cape Cod Lumber in Abington, and Copilabs, Inc. in Lawrence.

About the Author

Gregory Sullivan is Pioneer’s Research Director. Prior to joining Pioneer, Sullivan served two five-year terms as Inspector General of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts and was a 17-year member of the Massachusetts House of Representatives. Greg holds degrees from Harvard College, The Kennedy School of Public Administration, and the Sloan School at MIT.

###

Pioneer Institute is an independent, non-partisan, privately funded research organization that seeks to improve the quality of life in Massachusetts through civic discourse and intellectually rigorous, data-driven public policy solutions based on free market principles, individual liberty and responsibility, and the ideal of effective, limited and accountable government.

Get Updates on Our Economic Opportunity Research

Related Posts

Public Statement on the House’s Proposed Tax Reform and Budget

Pioneer Institute applauds key tax reform provisions advanced by the Speaker and House leadership, including a reduced short-term capital gains tax rate and implementation of a single sales factor apportionment. But leadership must do more to bolster the state’s economic competitiveness and slow out-migration of wealth and business owners that endangers the commonwealth’s economic future.

Debunking Tax Migration Myths

Provisions of Gov. Healey’s $876 million tax package targeted to higher-income earners — including revisions to the estate tax and a reduction in the tax rate for short-term capital gains — are important for encouraging taxpayers subject to them to remain in Massachusetts, according to a new analysis from Pioneer Institute.
Image by Freepik.comImage by Freepik.com

A History of Rent Control Policy in Massachusetts

While many may only remember the 1994 referendum and the laws…

Corporate Ownership: A Threat to Housing Affordability?

An increase in corporate ownership of housing has some experts worried about potential consequences of such a shift. One study found a link between LLC ownership and housing stock that is in disrepair, with more rapid deterioration than would be expected if ownership had not changed.

Gov. Healey’s Tax Plan: Not Enough on Competitiveness

0 Comments
/
In an effort to deliver "an affordable, equitable and competitive tax structure for Massachusetts," Governor Maura Healey on Feb. 28 unveiled her tax package. While her proposal makes significant strides in addressing affordability and indirectly improves equity, it does little to address the issues of competitiveness.

The Debate Over Rent Control Re-Emerges Amid Housing Crisis

0 Comments
/
There is a housing crisis in the Bay State, a fact unlikely to…

Eight Billion Minds: Unsustainable Population Bomb or Infinite Resource?

Hubwonk host Joe Selvaggi talks with Cato Scholar and author Marian Tupy about his new book, Superabundance: The Story of Population Growth, Innovation, and Human Flourishing on an Infinitely Bountiful Planet, focusing on the contrast in policy perspectives between those who see humans consumers of finite resources and those who recognize the unlimited potential of human ingenuity.

MBTA Safety Overhaul: Retooling Teams For Trustworthy Transit

0 Comments
/
This week on Hubwonk, host Joe Selvaggi talks with transit advocate and expert Chris Dempsey about ways in which structural change in the MBTA's safety oversight can be reformed to improve performance, engender greater trust amongst the region’s riders, and reduce transportation congestion in our growing economy.

Julianne Zimmerman on the Inventive Legacies of Immigrants

This week on JobMakers, host Denzil Mohammed talks with Julianne Zimmerman, managing director at Reinventure Capital, lecturer on Social Entrepreneurship at Tufts University (and named to Forbes' 2022 "50 Over 50" list). Julianne sees first-hand how immigrants collaborate with the U.S.-born to create meaningful inventions that solve real problems - but how rhetoric, policy, and an outdated system can shut them out.