Editorial Staff

Study: Methodology of Noted “Millionaire’s Tax” Researcher Excludes Vast Majority of Millionaires

/in , , , , /by Editorial Staff
Share on Facebook
Share on Twitter
Share on
LinkedIn
+

The work of a Stanford University Professor whose research has formed the foundation of efforts, such as one scheduled to appear on the Massachusetts ballot in November, to impose surtaxes on high earners is flawed because it excludes the vast majority of millionaires, according to a new study published by Pioneer Institute.

Eight Reasons to Question Professor Cristobal Young’s Conclusions about Millionaire Migration

Professor Cristobal Young’s research has found that no more than 2.4 percent of U.S.-based millionaires changed their state of residency in any given year.  But his methodology, which he describes as “people who earned $1 million or more in year t and changed their state of residency between year t and t+1,” captures just a small fraction of U.S. millionaires.

The ballot measure, known as Proposition 80, would amend the state constitution to add a 4 percent surtax on all annual income over $1 million.

The Federal Reserve Board estimates that there were 14.7 million U.S. households with net worth of $1 million or more in 2016, but only 6.8 percent of them had incomes of $1 million or more that year.  During the same year, 92.3 percent of the 4.43 million households with net worth between $2.5 million and $10 million had incomes of less than $1 million, and would therefore be excluded from Professor Young’s research.

“There were 14.7 million U.S. households with net worth of $1 million or more in 2016,” said Pioneer Executive Director Jim Stergios. “But in 2015, just 438,370 taxpayers fit Professor Young’s criteria.”

When high net worth individuals do earn $1 million or more in a year, they tend to do it on an irregular basis.  According to IRS data, the majority of U.S. taxpayers who reported gross annual incomes of $1 million or more over a nine-year period did so just once during that time.  Less than 6 percent earned $1 million or more in each of the nine years.

Pioneer Institute Research Director Greg Sullivan, author of Eight Reasons to Question Professor Cristobal Young’s Conclusions about Millionaire Migration, finds that Professor Young underestimates the cumulative effect of millionaire migration.  If Proposition 80 is adopted and Massachusetts experiences a 1.5 percent annual net out-migration of millionaires, which is below Young’s 2.4 percent estimate, by 2038, the Commonwealth will receive less in total income and surcharge taxes from taxpayers with incomes of $1 million or more than it would have if the measure had not been adopted.

Florida, which has no income, capital gains or estate taxes, accounts for almost half the out-migration of adjusted gross income from Massachusetts, far more even than New Hampshire, which also has no income tax.  Professor Young argues that the evidence for migration of millionaires is largely driven by the Sunshine State and has written that “When Florida is excluded, there is virtually no tax migration.”

“Saying there’s virtually no tax migration when you exclude Florida is like saying that if you exclude Muhammad Ali, Louisville hasn’t produced many great boxers,” said Sullivan.

More evidence that Professor Young underestimates the impact of taxation on migration patterns of the wealthy is found in the fact that five jurisdictions with no capital gains taxes have the highest average capital gains income.  One would hardly expect Wyoming, Nevada, Florida, Washington, and U.S. citizens living abroad to lead in this area, which is evidence that millionaires move to these jurisdictions to realize large capital gains distributions.

About the Author

Gregory W. Sullivan is Pioneer’s Research Director. Prior to joining Pioneer, Sullivan served two five-year terms as Inspector General of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, and was a 17-year member of the Massachusetts House of Representatives. Greg holds degrees from Harvard College, The Kennedy School of Public Administration, and the Sloan School at MIT.

About Pioneer

Pioneer Institute is an independent, non-partisan, privately funded research organization that seeks to improve the quality of life in Massachusetts through civic discourse and intellectually rigorous, data-driven public policy solutions based on free market principles, individual liberty and responsibility, and the ideal of effective, limited and accountable government.

Get Updates on Our Economic Opportunity Research

Related Posts

New IRS Data Shows Out-Migration Worsening, Underscoring the Need for Massachusetts Leaders to Focus on State’s Competitiveness

Massachusetts’ net loss of adjusted gross income (AGI) to other states grew from $2.5 billion in 2020 to $4.3 billion in 2021, according to recently released IRS data. Over 67 percent of the loss was to Florida and New Hampshire, both states with no income tax.

Public Statement on the House’s Proposed Tax Reform and Budget

Pioneer Institute applauds key tax reform provisions advanced by the Speaker and House leadership, including a reduced short-term capital gains tax rate and implementation of a single sales factor apportionment. But leadership must do more to bolster the state’s economic competitiveness and slow out-migration of wealth and business owners that endangers the commonwealth’s economic future.

Debunking Tax Migration Myths

Provisions of Gov. Healey’s $876 million tax package targeted to higher-income earners — including revisions to the estate tax and a reduction in the tax rate for short-term capital gains — are important for encouraging taxpayers subject to them to remain in Massachusetts, according to a new analysis from Pioneer Institute.
Image by Freepik.comImage by Freepik.com

A History of Rent Control Policy in Massachusetts

While many may only remember the 1994 referendum and the laws…

Corporate Ownership: A Threat to Housing Affordability?

An increase in corporate ownership of housing has some experts worried about potential consequences of such a shift. One study found a link between LLC ownership and housing stock that is in disrepair, with more rapid deterioration than would be expected if ownership had not changed.

Gov. Healey’s Tax Plan: Not Enough on Competitiveness

0 Comments
/
In an effort to deliver "an affordable, equitable and competitive tax structure for Massachusetts," Governor Maura Healey on Feb. 28 unveiled her tax package. While her proposal makes significant strides in addressing affordability and indirectly improves equity, it does little to address the issues of competitiveness.

The Debate Over Rent Control Re-Emerges Amid Housing Crisis

0 Comments
/
There is a housing crisis in the Bay State, a fact unlikely to…

Eight Billion Minds: Unsustainable Population Bomb or Infinite Resource?

Hubwonk host Joe Selvaggi talks with Cato Scholar and author Marian Tupy about his new book, Superabundance: The Story of Population Growth, Innovation, and Human Flourishing on an Infinitely Bountiful Planet, focusing on the contrast in policy perspectives between those who see humans consumers of finite resources and those who recognize the unlimited potential of human ingenuity.

MBTA Safety Overhaul: Retooling Teams For Trustworthy Transit

0 Comments
/
This week on Hubwonk, host Joe Selvaggi talks with transit advocate and expert Chris Dempsey about ways in which structural change in the MBTA's safety oversight can be reformed to improve performance, engender greater trust amongst the region’s riders, and reduce transportation congestion in our growing economy.

Julianne Zimmerman on the Inventive Legacies of Immigrants

This week on JobMakers, host Denzil Mohammed talks with Julianne Zimmerman, managing director at Reinventure Capital, lecturer on Social Entrepreneurship at Tufts University (and named to Forbes' 2022 "50 Over 50" list). Julianne sees first-hand how immigrants collaborate with the U.S.-born to create meaningful inventions that solve real problems - but how rhetoric, policy, and an outdated system can shut them out.

Report: Immigrant Entrepreneurs Provide Economic Benefits, but Face Significant Obstacles

Immigrants have started a quarter of all businesses in Massachusetts despite making up just 17 percent of the state workforce, and those establishments appear to be more innovative than those founded by native-born Americans. Despite these contributions, shrinking federal visa caps and red tape are among the factors making it more difficult for immigrants to come to the U.S., according to “Immigrant Entrepreneurs and the Barriers They Face: An Academic Literature Review,” published by Pioneer Institute. 

Joséphine Erni on Bringing Swiss Innovation to the U.S. Market

This week on JobMakers, host Denzil Mohammed talks with Joséphine Erni, Innovation Lead at Swissnex in Boston and New York, and immigrant from Switzerland. She explains how building collaborations between the highly entrepreneurial Swiss and the world’s biggest market, the U.S., gives rise to incredible innovations that benefit the world.

Josh Bedi on How Immigrants Boost Native Entrepreneurship

This week on JobMakers, host Denzil Mohammed talks with Dr. Joshua Bedi, child of an immigrant and postdoctoral researcher in entrepreneurship in the Department of Strategy and Innovation at Copenhagen Business School in Denmark. He is the son of an immigrant who relocated from India to Jackson, Mississippi, and started a business. It was a simple neighborhood gas station, but also a symbol of what hardworking immigrants can do to boost innovation and business generation in host countries, as you’ll learn in this week’s JobMakers podcast.

Pioneer Institute Statement on Question 1

Yesterday, voters came closer than many expected to rejecting the largest tax increase in Massachusetts history, even though opponents were dramatically outspent by the unions that bankrolled the amendment to the state Constitution. 

Steve Tobocman and Mamba Hamissi on How Refugees Are Revitalizing Detroit

This week on JobMakers, host Denzil Mohammed talks with Steve Tobocman, head of the economic development nonprofit Global Detroit, and one of the thousands of refugee business owners he’s assisted, Mamba Hamissi, Burundi native and co-founder of Baobab Fare, an East African restaurant.

Grading State Governors: Do Higher Taxes Equate To Higher Value?

This week on Hubwonk, host Joe Selvaggi talks with Cato Institute’s Chris Edwards about the new report he co-authored entitled, "Fiscal Policy Report Card on America’s Governors 2022." They discuss how Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker’s fiscal stewardship compares with other states, and explore whether higher tax rates and spending correlate with better state performance and resident satisfaction.

The Causes and Potential Cures for Inflation

This week on Hubwonk, Harvard economist and Pioneer Institute board member Ed Glaeser interviews Larry Summers, former U.S. Treasury Secretary and President Emeritus of Harvard University, for a special episode on the origins of inflation, its impact on the American economy, and a roadmap to recovery.

Sheetal Bahirat Turns a Profit on Food Waste

This week on JobMakers, host Denzil Mohammed talks with Sheetal Bahirat, founder and CEO of Hidden Gems Beverage Company, maker of Reveal Avocado Seed Brew, and immigrant from India. Food waste is an understudied and underutilized component of our daily lives with huge implications for our bodies and the planet - it is the number one contributor to climate change.