Entries by Steve Poftak

Good Stuff in Transportation

It’s easy to be cynical in this day and age, so we’ve put together a transcript of our May 2010 transportation forum to restore your faith. In it, we get to hear from three transportation innovators doing great work with limited resources. I urge you to give it a read. We hear from Jon Davis from the MBTA who explains how their Open Data Initiative has spawned a number of privately-developed applications. The MBTA’s strategic approach is a subtle, but crucially important one — rather than decide what their customers want, then slog through an in-house software and hardware procurement and development process — the T cleaned up their data and made it available to private developers. The result? A […]

Israel as First Stop?

Obligatory Throat-Clearing: There are a number of excellent reasons for public sector officials to visit Israel. The point of this column is to question the Governor and the Mass Competitive Partnership’s prioritization of Israel as his first stop on a Massachusetts Trade mission, not to engage in any broader discussion. Today’s Globe discusses the Governor’s potential trade missions and reports that Israel is his first planned trip. (To be fair, it notes the Governor Romney planned a trip and that Governor Weld made 3 trips to Israel). Here’s my question: Why would you pick Israel first as a trade mission (note the qualifier ‘trade’, not political or cultural). Israel is Massachusetts’ 25th largest import and export partner. Based on the […]

Implications of the Harvard Pilgrim-Tufts Merger

Today’s news brings word of a potential merger between Tufts and Harvard Pilgrim. For this observer, it raises the question of how much more concentrated the health insurance market will become if the #2 and #3 insurers are merged? The standard measure of market concentration is the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, which is the total of the squares of each participant’s market share. In a pure monopoly, the 100% market share translates to an index score of 10,000. In an almost total atomized market (100 participants each with 1% shares), you get an index score of 100. To give a sense of perspective, the Federal Trade Commission considers a market with an HHI of between 1500 and 2500 to be moderately concentrated. […]

Ever Met A Tax Incentive You Didn’t Like?

Remarkable to read the Globe’s endorsement today of the latest ‘flavor of the month’ tax credit. The latest (remember nanotech, cleantech, life sciences, film production?) favored industry is video game production. Given the implosion of the Evergreen Solar deal, one would think that targeted tax incentives aimed at specific niche industries would have to pass a pretty high bar at this point. But the Globe apparently thinks the policy remains sound, despite the Evergreen setback. Their reasoning? The Globe falls back on its mantra-like recitation of ‘clean energy’. Clean energy is important, but it doesn’t justify high risk investments and its not going to signficantly move the employment needle. PS — In case, you were wondering — the Globe is […]

MBTA Parking Proposal Should Go Further

The MBTA is proposing to securitize its parking revenues (roughly $30m per year) in order to fill a budget gap next year and pay down some debts, according to a Globe article. Also, the T will continue to run the lots and set prices. First, its not clear to me that this proposal creates value, except by solving a short-term fiscal problem (at potentially great expense). If this is just a pure securitization of a future stream of income (without the promise of operational improvements that would provide better service and/or generate more revenue), then its just taking money from the future to the present. Its even worse if the money goes to fund operating costs, then you’ve taken future […]

Choice for me but not for thee?

The Globe’s op-ed page has been featuring several ‘guest’ columnists, including Junia Yearwood, a retired BPS teacher. One of her recent columns is a pretty vicious attack on charter schools — categorically accusing them of creaming students, ejecting difficult students, and making her former school a ‘dumping ground’. So, given her egalitarian views and support for the district schools, I was intrigued to learn that, for her own child, she sends them to the suburbs to be educated through the METCO program.

Groupon for the Public Sector?

Groupon (and its group-buying competitors) are all the rage in retail right now. There’s a pretty healthy debate going on regarding the pros and cons of the Group-on model (see here, here, here, here, here and so forth), so I was intrigued a few weeks back when I saw that a quasi-public entity was the featured Boston Groupon of the day. Zoo New England runs the Franklin Park and Stone Zoos and receives a subsidy from the state of several million dollars. Its CEO, John Linehan, was kind enough to speak with me about the Zoo’s thinking behind the Groupon offer. (See Disclosure below) Much of the criticism of Groupon centers on several themes – does it draw new customers […]

Patrick-Baker Compared to Brown-Coakley

Scott Brown’s election in January 2010 was supposed to be the beginning of a Republican wave. Comparing the vote totals between the major party candidates in the special Senate election and yesterday’s gubernatorial race provides some insight. In total*, Patrick beat Baker by 153,000 votes. Comparing raw vote totals with the Brown-Coakley election, Patrick improved his raw votes by 5% – getting 105% of the votes that Coakley got. On the other hand, Baker severely underperformed Brown’s raw vote totals, attracting only 82% of Brown’s votes, an almost 200,000 vote difference. If you put Baker and Cahill’s totals together, you are up to 95% of the vote. Looking at the municipal level shows gives some additional texture: Patrick outperformed Coakley […]

Globe's Puzzling Emphasis on Clean Energy

Today’s Globe endorses Deval Patrick for Governor, an expected and surely welcome recommendation. My quibble is with the Globe’s overemphasis on clean energy. (Obligatory Throatclearing: Clean energy is undoubtedly important, for many reasons.) Why is clean energy mentioned 8 times in a roughly 1100 word endorsement? The clean tech industry in Massachusetts is, at best, 10,000 to 15,000 jobs (or here), with the prospect of adding 5,000 or so jobs in the next five years. And I suspect that those numbers include a lot of HVAC tech and energy/power automation companies that were around long before the ‘green energy’ wave became high profile. The growth in jobs is welcome and should be encouraged but in an economy with 3 milllion […]

Is the job picture improving?

I confess to being stumped by the contradictory information circulating today. From a survey of households, you get evidence that unemployment is dropping: From August to September, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the number of unemployed dropped by 12,000 while the number of employed grew by 13,900, resulting in an 8.4% unemployment rate. From a survey of employers, you get evidence that jobs are being eliminated: From August to September, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the number of jobs declined by 20,900. What gives here? Could it be that people are giving up and dropping out of the workforce? I don’t think so — the first link, the survey of households, actually shows the labor force expanding by 1,900 during […]

Running the Numbers for Gloucester

Today’s Globe has a piece on Gloucester’s issues with schools, which encompass fiscal pressures and the controversial launch of a new charter school. It intrigued me enough to dig into some of the data that is available. A few observations: • State Department of Revenue figures show Gloucester’s school spending going from $27.2m in 2000 to $31.3m in 2009, a relatively modest increase of 15%. Yet other town spending goes from $27.3m to $49.6m over the same period, an increase of 82%. Health insurance costs account for about $7m in increased costs, but what is the rest of it? Is it indicative of the town’s priorities? • From 2000 to 2009, Gloucester’s population has been stable, declining by only 30 […]

2 Things Every Prospective Boston Public School Parent Should Know

For young parents in Boston, anxiety is beginning to build around the Boston Public School lottery, the mechanism by which the district assigns students to various schools. I’ve discussed the subject in some depth previously. From hearing anecdotal reports and seeing the evidence on our local school listserv, I wanted to pass on two vital pieces of info. First, at every school you visit, every parent should be asking “How many kids in last year’s entering class were siblings?”. The BPS resists issuing this data, and to my knowledge, only released the data publicly in a single year (2005). They also released 2008-9 data for the West Zone to me after multiple requests. The reason it is important is that […]

Roslindale Parade Update

As regular readers know, I’m a big fan of parades (see here and here). Once again, I’ve tried my best to divine political trends from watching this year’s marchers: 1) Kudos to City Councillor Rob Consalvo for both marching in the parade and for sponsoring the Boston Crusaders Senior Marching Band. Other Hyde Park politicians (looking at you Rep. Scaccia) should be so thoughtful about the Roslindale portion of their districts. 2) Absolutely no statewide officeholders marched in the parade or participated in any way. Tsk, Tsk. 3) Of Boston’s four at-large city councilors, only John Connolly marched (and got the standard strong positive reaction). It’s basically a homegame for Councillor Connolly but it’s surprising that no one else participated. […]

Causes of Boston's Bus Problems

Today’s Globe has an op-ed decrying the problems with the buses taking kids to the Boston Public Schools — they’ve been plagued with delays since school started. The article points out two potential causes of the problem — issues implementing a new routing software system and resistance/noncompliance by the drivers union. (Given that their union has seen fit to traffic in the coarsest forms of racially-charged attacks in the past, it can’t be ruled out.) Other issues, that might not be obvious to non-residents are: 1) Broad eligibility: Any elementary school child over a mile away from their school (or with an intervening major thoroughfare between them and school) is eligible. That’s a lot of kids. 2) Huge coverage area: […]

Keeping MA Competitive

Pioneer and our partners at the Mass High Tech Council are kicking off a project today that will examine the tax environment in Massachusetts, how job creation has behaved over the same period, and how we stack up against competitor states. The project begins with a policy brief that ‘sets the table‘, examining Massachusetts in context with other states. Over the next week, I’ll be presenting data from the report on the blog. Please take a look at the piece and stay tuned for more.

My AM 8 Thoughts on Yesterday's Election

1) Suzanne Bump’s resounding victory over Guy Glodis and Mike Lake has to be the surprise of the night. She came within 3000 votes of winning an outright majority. 2) Glodis only won his stronghold of Worcester by 1,359 votes (with pretty light turnout). Almost makes one wonder if someone in the firmament of Worcester political stars did not really deliver for Glodis. 3) On the topic of not delivering the vote, Stephen Murphy only beat Grossman by ~4000 votes in Boston. So, Murphy can manage 50,000 votes in the city in an off-year council race (where voters get four choices to be fair), yet less than half that in the Treasurer’s race. 4) I’m guessing that Suzanne Bump was […]

The Tom Menino Endorsement Continuum

Governor Patrick is receiving Mayor Tom Menino’s endorsement this afternoon. It should not be surprising that a sitting Democratic governor would be endorsed by the sitting Democratic mayor of the state’s largest city and capital. But the relationship between Patrick and Menino has been frosty at times. As an example, recall the GOV’s effort to fire Dan Grabauskas, who got a full vote of confidence from Menino at the time. Again, take the names out and consider the roles — Democratic mayor extends himself on behalf of Republican bureaucrat in opposition to sitting Democratic governor. More recently, when asked to grade the GOV’s performance, Menino responded by giving him a ‘C’ for the first three years and a ‘B+’ more […]

Oddity in Latest GOV Poll

State House News Service (despite its small size, per the Globe) has a new Governor’s poll out this AM. What I’m having trouble reconciling is Charlie Baker’s small name identification and his vote total. His favorable/unfavorable ratings break out to be 21% to 17%, with the remainder being “no opinion/never heard of”. Yet he grabs 28% of the vote. What does this mean? It has to mean with people who profess to have ‘no opinion’ or have never heard of Baker are picking him as their candidate. Or people who view unfavorably are voting for him. Either way, that’s strange.

Keeping Massachusetts Competitive

Massachusetts is a state with many economic and competitive strengths, but policymakers, elected officials, and business leaders must not ignore its weaknesses. Massachusetts offers compelling advantages to companies looking to expand businesses or start new ones, but other states are chipping away at the state’s advantages in this area.

Let Me (Try to) Explain — Property Tax Increases

(Blog series so named for William Bulger’s admonition about the three most deadly words a politician can say: Let me explain.) The gubernatorial candidates are sniping at each other over property tax issues. And Blue Mass Group poster “JohnK” has weighed in with a measured assessment of the claims and counterclaims, entitled “CHARLIEBAKERFAIL” or some such thing (they must be using a template at this point). The latest salvo comes from the Patrick Campaign, which is trying a very delicate semantic pivot — that property tax increases have decreased under the GOV. They put up this chart, which I can’t recreate. But from this DOR data, I get directionally the same results. (I’d note that I’m using “Total Tax Levy” […]

How did I make it without a black box theatre?

(I guess this is my introduction to middle age — this is a ‘back in my day’ post) Now, I take a back seat to very few people in the privileged upbringing department — leafy green suburbs, high quality schools — but the new Newton North high school does give one pause. I respect the desire to have the best for your kids (although I’m not happy with the negative incentives that ‘free’ state money provided), but this school is a bit much. Look at all the stuff: A regular theatre and a ‘black-box theatre’ (whatever that might be)? The large flat screen TVs at various stations? Two gyms? Elliptical machines? and on and on. I hope the edifice complex […]

Gov's Council Race Goes Negative

Quick, who is your Governor’s Councillor? Chances are that you have no idea. I’ve said in the past that its time for this vestige of our colonial past to go, but still it remains. In the 2nd race, the current councillor, Kelly Timilty, faced a challenge the last time around but prevailed 66% to 34% over Robert Jubinville. In that race, Timilty faked an endorsement from Governor Patrick and ended up paying a fine after the fact for her actions. Well, Jubinville is back and he’s not pleased. Check out the mailer I received over the weekend. Pretty rough stuff – cheating and stealing, etc. Curious where they got that shot of Timilty.

I Love the Smell of Centrism in the Morning

I must admit to an unhealthy fascination with the state auditor’s race. Besides Guy Glodis’ bus, you’ve got an interesting cast of characters (and conflicting voter bloc loyalties) on both ballots. So, I was interested to see this yard sign duo cropping up around the Suffolk & Norfolk District:

Welcome to Forced Regionalization

This space has been a big proponent of regionalization, with a strong preference for organic, self-directed regionalization. For the towns surrounding Lawrence, they may not have that luxury. When we looked at the attempt to regionalize fire services on the South Shore in the report linked above, one unexpected finding was that some communities already received an implicit subsidy based on mutual aid agreements (and were loathe to enter into a regionalization agreement that caused them to have to pay up for what they were getting for free). The City of Lawrence appears to be doing something similar. It has cut back its fire department staffing to what appears to this layman to be extraordinarily low levels. As a result, […]

Offensive and Wrong

One of the card-carrying members of this town’s great and good, Judy Meredith, contributes the following to a Blue Mass Group discussion of Matt Amorello’s arrest: thanks for this ernie (6.00 / 4) so sad for Matt, not a bad fellow at all. I suspect too many police officers are high school bullies who were too stupid for community college and lacked the self control required by organized crime. by: Judy Meredith @ Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 09:09:01 AM CDT I include the entire comment (despite the awkward formatting) so no one can say its taken out of context. This space has not always had a great relationship with the public safety community (examples here and here), but I’ve […]

The Difference Between Lynn and Salem

One of the nifty things about using the Globe Reader application is that I get to see the regional editions of the paper. This week’s Globe North edition has a fascinating account of the differences between Lynn and Salem. Each community has certain assets, received public funds for development activities, and chose certain strategies. The results are quite different. If you are interested in urban development, I encourage you to give the piece a read.

Best Wishes To Curt

Today’s news reports that Curt Schilling has accepted the deal offered by the state of Rhode Island and is relocating his company there. (Our previous thoughts on the topic and Curt’s response is here.) The Herald’s report describes state economic development officials as being on the defensive. They shouldn’t be.* Schilling’s got every right to get the best deal for his company. And the loss of jobs (roughly 200 from the website, it appears) is acutely painful. But, if you look at the big picture, as Pioneer has — here and here — you see that firm relocation has a negligible impact on job creation. Of course, you hate to see any jobs go, but the reality is that what […]

The Limits of Data: Weighted Edition

One tip for aspiring data hounds — always ask for weighted data. What do I mean? What’s the on-time performance for commuter rail? In NY, it’s 96%! Huzzah, right? Wrong, that’s on the basis of trains, not weighted by passenger. Anecdotal evidence suggests rush-hour trains (which are packed with people) have a much higher rate of delay. By not weighting on-time data by passenger, NY’s on-time performance fails to tell the whole story and fails the credibility test with the most important user group of all — the customers.

The Limits of Data

Here at Pioneer, we are all for data-driven decision-making, and rely on publicly-available data all the time. But that can be a problem when the data being provided is garbage… or worse. In case you missed, the Globe is in the midst of a slow-motion evisceration of the state’s Probation Department and their article on Sunday was a stunner. It revealed, among other, things that the Probation Department was using a non-standard measure of caseload (measuring all cases open during a calendar year) and when the nationally-accepted standard was put in place, caseload dropped from 167 cases per officer to ‘about 40’. From reading the piece, and the series, its clear that Probation has operated off the grid of oversight […]