Polling Problems: A Professional Pollster Ponders Errors Plaguing 2020 Election Predictions

Share on Facebook
Share on Twitter
Share on
LinkedIn
+

Hubwonk Host Joe Selvaggi and Emerson Polling’s Spencer Kimball discuss the polling industry’s failure to reliably anticipate election results in 2020.  Where were the largest errors, what may have been the reasons, and what should consumers of polling data consider when interpreting data?

Guest:
Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Assistant Professor, teaches Political and Sports Communication courses in both the undergraduate and graduate programs. He is the director of Emerson College Polling and an advisor for the Emerson Pre-Law Society and the Emerson College Polling Society. Kimball’s primary research focus is in Survey Methodology and the testing of data collection methods. His research has been published in top-tier journals and he has presented his work at conferences and workshops around the globe. He offers commentary for media outlets on his methodology and latest election polls, for MSNBC, Fox News, Harpers Magazine, The Wall Street Journal, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, National Journal, and NPR.

Get new episodes of Hubwonk in your inbox!

Related Posts:

Candidate Selection Breakdown: Presidential Primary Primacy or Determined Delegate Detour

Joe Selvaggi talks with MIT Professor Charles Stewart III about the political party’s presidential candidate nomination process and what or who ultimately decides who is chosen.

Breaking Down Encampments: Court Finds no Right to Sleep Outdoors

Joe Selvaggi speaks with Manhattan Institute Senior Fellow Dr. Stephen Eide about the Grants Pass v. Johnson Supreme Court decision and its impact on homeless encampments in Boston and across the country.

Underfunding Overdose Alternatives: Price Controls Hinder Search for Non-Addictive Opioids

Joe Selvaggi talks with Pioneer Institute's Director of Healthcare Initiatives, Dr. Bill Smith, about the challenges posed by new regulations and price controls for developing alternatives to addictive opioids.

Unlocking Affordable Housing: Sources and Solutions for Cost Crisis

Joe Selvaggi talks with Pioneer Institute Housing Fellow Andrew Mikula about his research on the causes and cures for our region's highest-in-the-nation housing costs. 

Jawboning Free Speech: State Coercion Finds Limits at Supreme Court

Joe Selvaggi talks with Cato Institute legal scholar Thomas Berry about the effects of the 9-0 Supreme Court decision in NRA v. Vullo on states' ability to use regulation to target disfavored free speech.

Protectionism’s Bipartisan Embrace: Who Pays When Imports Cost More

Joe Selvaggi talks with international tax and trade expert Clark Packard about the tension between the economic and political calculus behind the Biden administration's recently announced tariffs on Chinese products, including EVs, batteries, and steel.

Universal Savings Accounts: Designing Tax Incentives that Pay to Save

Joe Selvaggi talks with CATO Institute’s Dr. Adam Michel about the opportunity for tax reforms that promote individual savings, an important foundation for economic growth, personal well-being, and intergenerational support.

Precision Law Enforcement: Can Gunfire Detection Technology Serve and Protect Everyone?

Joe Selvaggi talks with SoundThinking's Senior Vice President Tom Chittum about gunfire location technology promises and pitfalls when deployed by law enforcement in high-crime communities.

Examining Diversity’s Dividends: Can Studies Survive Contact with Peer Review

Joe Selvaggi talks with business data scientist Dr. Jeremiah Green about his peer review work examining consulting firm McKinsey’s studies on the measurable financial benefits of diversity in corporate executive leadership.

Promoting Policy Probity: Confessions of Hubwonk’s Humble Host at 200

Hubwonk's Joe Selvaggi marks episode 200 with a solo podcast that offers some backstory of his journey to becoming a host and offers some insights learned from more than 4 years of interviews.

Losing Local Labor: Retaining Workers Remains a Massachusetts Challenge

Joe Selvaggi talks with Pioneer Institute's Research Associate Aidan Enright about Pioneer's annual report on the Massachusetts labor force and discuss which trends could portend trouble for the state’s future.

Tax Man Confounded: Why High Rates Haven’t Yielded Higher Revenue

Joe Selvaggi talks with economic scholar Dr. Brian Domitrovic about the history of federal tax policy and the reasons for why varied marginal rates fail to correlate with either tax revenue or GDP growth.

Industrial Policy Reimaged: Can Government Improve Free Markets

Joe Selvaggi discusses industrial policy, its aspirations and limitations, with CATO Institute Associate Director Colin Grabow, in response to Senator Rubio's thought piece advocating for a more active role for government in the economy.

Posting Patient Prices: Transparency Cure for Hospital Blank Checks

Joe Selvaggi interviews entrepreneur, philanthropist, and founder of PatientRightsAdvocate.org, Cynthia Fisher, discussing her research and advocacy for enhanced healthcare price transparency. This initiative has the potential to improve life expectancy and save Americans over a trillion dollars annually.

Constitutional Property Taking: Exclusionary Zoning’s Costs to Owners and Society

Joe Selvaggi talks with George Mason Law Professor Ilya Somin about the the costs, benefits, and legal foundations of exclusionary zoning argued in his recent paper: The Constitutional Case Against Exclusionary Zoning. 

Poor Housing Incentives: Tax Credits Reward Politicians Not Neighbors in Need

Joe Selvaggi interviews Chris Edwards, Chair of Fiscal Studies at CATO Institute, about his research on the 40-year history of Low-Income Housing Tax Credits. They delve into its features, effects, and potential alternatives that could provide greater benefits at lower costs to taxpayers.

Biden’s Budget Breakdown: Pragmatic Progress or Political Posturing

Joe Selvaggi talks with Manhattan Institute Senior Fellow Brian Reidl about how the contours of President Biden’s recently released budget proposal reveal a persistent, bipartisan reluctance to address profound structural deficits.

Genetic Therapy Revolution: Benefits and Barriers for Medicine’s New Horizon

Joe Selvaggi talks with neurobiologist and writer Dr. Anne Sydor about the potential for gene therapy to address deadly and debilitating diseases and how current health care models must adapt to encourage this nascent technology.