Editorial Staff

Polling Problems: A Professional Pollster Ponders Errors Plaguing 2020 Election Predictions

/0 Comments/in , /by Editorial Staff
Share on Facebook
Share on Twitter
Share on
LinkedIn
+

Hubwonk Host Joe Selvaggi and Emerson Polling’s Spencer Kimball discuss the polling industry’s failure to reliably anticipate election results in 2020.  Where were the largest errors, what may have been the reasons, and what should consumers of polling data consider when interpreting data?

Guest:
Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Assistant Professor, teaches Political and Sports Communication courses in both the undergraduate and graduate programs. He is the director of Emerson College Polling and an advisor for the Emerson Pre-Law Society and the Emerson College Polling Society. Kimball’s primary research focus is in Survey Methodology and the testing of data collection methods. His research has been published in top-tier journals and he has presented his work at conferences and workshops around the globe. He offers commentary for media outlets on his methodology and latest election polls, for MSNBC, Fox News, Harpers Magazine, The Wall Street Journal, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, National Journal, and NPR.

Get new episodes of Hubwonk in your inbox!

Related Posts:

Collegiate Kangaroo Courts: Title IX Rewrite Expels Free Expression and Due Process

This week on Hubwonk, host Joe Selvaggi talks with Pacific Legal Foundation Senior Fellow Alison Somin about the Biden Administration’s proposed modifications to Title IX fair treatment guidelines, challenging principles of free speech and due process, and potentially chilling the culture of free debate in American universities.

Train Wreck Averted: Labor Ties American Economy to the Tracks

This week on Hubwonk, host Joe Selvaggi talks with Dominic Pino, Thomas L. Rhodes Fellow at the National Review Institute, about his research and writing on the recently averted rail strike, including how the rail industry is organized, what labor’s demands were, and how the prospect of a nationwide rail strike exposed vulnerabilities within the American economy.

Gargantuan Graduation Gift: Biden Writes Check From Taxpayers To College Grads

This week on Hubwonk, host Joe Selvaggi talks with Dr. Beth Akers, AEI Senior Fellow, about the recent presidential executive order to cancel an estimated $500 billion in outstanding student debt. They explore who benefits, who pays, and the likely effects on tuition and the borrowing habits of future students.

MBTA’s Runaway Crisis: Legacy of Neglect Demands Comprehensive Reform

This week on Hubwonk, host Joe Selvaggi talks with Andrew Bagley, Vice President for Policy and Research at Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, about their recent report entitled, The MBTA Crisis is Complicated - Fixing It Will Be Too, diving into the details on why the T is in crisis and what the public must demand of policy makers to get it back on track.

The Taxman Cometh: Who Will Pay When the Newly Funded IRS Knocks?

This week on Hubwonk, host Joe Selvaggi talks with Heritage Foundation senior research fellow Rachel Greszler about the $80 billion investment in the Internal Revenue Service, focusing on the promise to limit enhanced enforcement to high earners and whether the IRS will likely need to expand its net.

Civil Society’s Stockade: Protecting Pluralism From Progressive Puritanism

This week on Hubwonk, host Joe Selvaggi talks with Noah Rothman, associate editor of Commentary magazine, about his recently released book, "The Rise of the New Puritans: Fighting Back Against Progressives' War On Fun," examining how the attempt to remoralize American culture mirrors similar social movements in the past and what concerned onlookers can do to better manage this frenzied phenomenon.

Drug Price Control: Bad Medicine for Healthcare and Region

Hubwonk host Joe Selvaggi talks with Dr. Bill Smith, Director of Pioneer Institute’s Life Sciences Initiative, about the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act on long-term health costs. They discuss the bill's unintended consequences, potential effect on the region’s vibrant pharmaceutical research and development sector, and what citizens can do about it.

Other People’s Money: Fair Share’s Populist Promises and Problems

This week on Hubwonk, host Joe Selvaggi talks with Boston Globe columnist Jeff Jacoby about November’s Massachusetts Ballot Question 1, the so-called Fair Share Amendment. They examine both the merits and timing of a graduated state income tax, as well as the effects on society of creating separate categories of taxpayers, and the dangers of setting the many against the few.

Law Enforcement Dividend: Who Benefits When Crime Is Prevented?

This week on Hubwonk, host Joe Selvaggi talks with Rafael Mangual, Manhattan Institute senior fellow, about his newly released book, Criminal (In)Justice, examining where crime is occurring in the U.S., what types of crimes those in the prison systems have committed, and the tradeoffs faced by society when considering defunding the police and reducing prison populations. 

Final Election Verdict: Conservative Compendium Comprehensively Closes 2020 Challenge Cases

This week on Hubwonk, host Joe Selvaggi talks with Ilya Somin, author and George Mason Law professor, about the newly released report on all court challenges to the 2020 presidential election entitled, Lost, Not Stolen, exploring what its authors intended to achieve, what its readers can learn from its findings, and whether such intra-party scrutiny can serve to reassure voters that their concerns about election integrity have had their day in court.

Supreme Court Shift: Interpreting Changes in Justices, Majorities, and Philosophies

This week on Hubwonk, host Joe Selvaggi talks with Ilya Shapiro, constitutional scholar, author, and senior fellow of Constitutional Studies at the Manhattan Institute, about the changing makeup of the court, and how this term’s most high-profile decisions reveal the judicial philosophies that comprise the current bench.

Drug Cost Disruption: Direct Generic Access Can Save Consumers Billions

Hubwonk host Joe Selvaggi talks with Dr. Hussain Lalani about his recently published research on the potential for more than $3 billion in savings were Medicare to use Mark Cuban’s new direct-to-consumer drug company to purchase generics.

SCOTUS Gun Stun: Bearing Arms in Summer Bruen Decision

This week on Hubwonk, host Joe Selvaggi talks with CATO Institute research fellow Trevor Burrus about the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen and its implications for an individual’s right to carry a fire arm in states such as Massachusetts.

Taxation Without Legislation: Exploring Inflation’s Causes, Curses & Cures

Hubwonk host Joe Selvaggi talks with Bloomberg Columnist and National Review Editor Ramesh Ponnuru about the reasons for the sustained spike in inflation, its impact on savers and consumers, the possible policy remedies, and the likely intensity and duration of this cycle.

Lifelines for the Untethered: Research to Reach and Recover Homeless Americans

This week on Hubwonk, host Joe Selvaggi talks with Stephen Eide, Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute about his newly released book, Homelessness in America: The History and Tragedy of an Intractable Social Problem, in which he asserts that a better understanding of the many challenges facing each homeless individual can lead to a tailored and more durable policy solution to this enduring societal problem.

Empowered or Exploited Entrepreneurs: Voters Determine Rideshare Drivers’ Fate on November Ballot

0 Comments
/
Hubwonk host Joe Selvaggi talks with communications expert and cofounder of South & Hill Strategies Lizzy Guyton about what the research on the profiles and preferences of rideshare drivers tells us about the industry, and the possible effects of designating independent contractors as employees.

Searching For Space: Massachusetts Real Estate in a Time of Covid

Hubwonk host Joe Selvaggi talks with real estate expert and broker/owner Pauline Donnelly about the disruption and trends created by the Covid-19 pandemic and steps buyers and renters can take to become more informed, prudent, and competitive in the frenzied market of Greater Boston and Martha’s Vineyard.

Forsaking Massachusetts’s Miracle: Risking Our Future With Past Mistakes

This week on Hubwonk, host Joe Selvaggi talks with Greg Sullivan, Research Director at Pioneer Institute and author of Back to Taxachusetts?, about the link between Massachusetts’s decision to reduce tax rates and a generation-long economic renaissance - and the reasons why new taxes such as the proposed, so-called "Fair Share Amendment" risk taking us back to economic stagnation or decline.