Polling Problems: A Professional Pollster Ponders Errors Plaguing 2020 Election Predictions

Share on Facebook
Share on Twitter
Share on
LinkedIn
+

Hubwonk Host Joe Selvaggi and Emerson Polling’s Spencer Kimball discuss the polling industry’s failure to reliably anticipate election results in 2020.  Where were the largest errors, what may have been the reasons, and what should consumers of polling data consider when interpreting data?

Guest:
Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Assistant Professor, teaches Political and Sports Communication courses in both the undergraduate and graduate programs. He is the director of Emerson College Polling and an advisor for the Emerson Pre-Law Society and the Emerson College Polling Society. Kimball’s primary research focus is in Survey Methodology and the testing of data collection methods. His research has been published in top-tier journals and he has presented his work at conferences and workshops around the globe. He offers commentary for media outlets on his methodology and latest election polls, for MSNBC, Fox News, Harpers Magazine, The Wall Street Journal, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, National Journal, and NPR.

Get new episodes of Hubwonk in your inbox!

Related Posts:

Drug Cost Disruption: Direct Generic Access Can Save Consumers Billions

Hubwonk host Joe Selvaggi talks with Dr. Hussain Lalani about his recently published research on the potential for more than $3 billion in savings were Medicare to use Mark Cuban’s new direct-to-consumer drug company to purchase generics.

SCOTUS Gun Stun: Bearing Arms in Summer Bruen Decision

This week on Hubwonk, host Joe Selvaggi talks with CATO Institute research fellow Trevor Burrus about the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen and its implications for an individual’s right to carry a fire arm in states such as Massachusetts.

Taxation Without Legislation: Exploring Inflation’s Causes, Curses & Cures

Hubwonk host Joe Selvaggi talks with Bloomberg Columnist and National Review Editor Ramesh Ponnuru about the reasons for the sustained spike in inflation, its impact on savers and consumers, the possible policy remedies, and the likely intensity and duration of this cycle.

Lifelines for the Untethered: Research to Reach and Recover Homeless Americans

This week on Hubwonk, host Joe Selvaggi talks with Stephen Eide, Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute about his newly released book, Homelessness in America: The History and Tragedy of an Intractable Social Problem, in which he asserts that a better understanding of the many challenges facing each homeless individual can lead to a tailored and more durable policy solution to this enduring societal problem.

Empowered or Exploited Entrepreneurs: Voters Determine Rideshare Drivers’ Fate on November Ballot

/
Hubwonk host Joe Selvaggi talks with communications expert and cofounder of South & Hill Strategies Lizzy Guyton about what the research on the profiles and preferences of rideshare drivers tells us about the industry, and the possible effects of designating independent contractors as employees.

Searching For Space: Massachusetts Real Estate in a Time of Covid

Hubwonk host Joe Selvaggi talks with real estate expert and broker/owner Pauline Donnelly about the disruption and trends created by the Covid-19 pandemic and steps buyers and renters can take to become more informed, prudent, and competitive in the frenzied market of Greater Boston and Martha’s Vineyard.

Forsaking Massachusetts’s Miracle: Risking Our Future With Past Mistakes

This week on Hubwonk, host Joe Selvaggi talks with Greg Sullivan, Research Director at Pioneer Institute and author of Back to Taxachusetts?, about the link between Massachusetts’s decision to reduce tax rates and a generation-long economic renaissance - and the reasons why new taxes such as the proposed, so-called "Fair Share Amendment" risk taking us back to economic stagnation or decline.  

Doctors With Borders: Curing Shortages With International Lifeline

This week on Hubwonk, host Joe Selvaggi talks with Cicero Institute’s Jonathan Wolfson about the growing doctor shortage and the potential to alleviate the crisis by tapping the global supply of well-trained physicians eager to find safety and freedom in the US.

Progressive Policy Study: Californians Dreamin’ While Jobs and People Leavin’

Hubwonk host Joe Selvaggi talks with California Policy Center president Will Swaim about how the state’s ambitious policies have combined to stick its residents with the highest cost of living and a tax regime that discourages investment, innovation, and its vital entrepreneurial class.

Student Debt Cancellation: Paying For Your Neighbors’ College Education

Hubwonk host Joe Selvaggi talks with education financing expert Mark Kantrowitz about the $1.6 trillion in U.S. public student debt - who owes it, who stands to benefit from the Biden administration's recent promise for across-the-board student debt reductions, and what strategies are available to target only those most in need.

Invisible Hand Revealed: Economic Lessons in Everyday Life

Hubwonk host Joe Selvaggi talks with Matthew Hennessey, Wall Street Journal editor and author of Visible Hand, A Wealth of Notions on the Miracle of the Market, about how the principles of economics manifest themselves in our every day lives and how we can use that insight to better understand our personal and civic choices.

Zoning Reform Revisited: Local Control Determines How, Not If, Housing Gets Built

Hubwonk host Joe Selvaggi talks with Pioneer research associate Andrew Mikula about the need for affordable housing near the mass transit network and the requirements and local design opportunities of the 3A zoning reform law. Read Pioneer Institute's recent public comment on this topic.

Pharmacy Benefit Profiteers: Distortions and Costs of Half-Trillion Dollar Drug Middlemen

Hubwonk Host Joe Selvaggi talks with ALVA10 Chief Executive Hannah Mamuszka and Dr. Blake Long about the perverse incentives imposed by Pharmacy Benefit Managers adding nearly $500 billion to U.S. drug costs.

Ascending Justice: Where Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson Will Fit in New Court

Hubwonk host Joe Selvaggi talks with constitutional scholar Ilya Shapiro about Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson’s nomination hearings and what her background and responses reveal about her views on the Constitution, the role of the Supreme Court, and her likely judicial positions relative to her fellow justices.

Exploiting Charity Drugs: Hospital Program Earns Billions But Forgets Mission

Hubwonk host Joe Selvaggi talks with Pioneer Institute’s Dr. Bill Smith about his recently released paper entitled, "340B Drug Discounts, An Increasingly Dysfunctional Federal Program," which analyzes the evolution of a well-intentioned program to offer discounted drugs to the uninsured from a benefit that had helped charitable hospitals to one that has exploded to generate billions in profits while serving fewer uninsured.

Rent Control Redux: Mayor’s Committee Likely to Provide Astroturf Over Expertise

Hubwonk host Joe Selvaggi talks with Doug Quatrocchi, executive director of Masslandlords.net about the historical effects of rent control in Boston and Cambridge in the past and discuss the gap between the stated goals and the likely outcome of Boston Mayor Wu’s 25 member Rent Stabilization Advisory Committee.

Ich Bin Ukrainer: European Nation Existential Fight Against Aggression

Hubwonk host Joe Selvaggi talks with former CEO of Kyiv Post and senior fellow at the Institute for the Study of War Nataliya Bugayova about her research on the rise of Vladimir Putin and how it can inform understanding of the Russian invasion, particularly when viewed through the eyes of Ukrainians.

Successful Aging Support: Reimagining Effective and Affordable Long-Term Care Solutions

Hubwonk host Joe Selvaggi talks with Brookings Institution Senior Fellow and healthcare policy expert Stuart Butler about the challenge of building long-term care systems and institutions that will support Americans as they age, without depleting assets and bankrupting the social safety net.