Study Finds Bump in State Population Due to Changes in Census Bureau Methodology

State sees big jump in humanitarian migrants 

BOSTON – State leaders cheered in January when the U.S. Census Bureau estimated that Massachusetts’ population grew by 69,000 in 2024, more than at any other time in 60 years. Unfortunately, a closer look reveals that the higher estimates are largely driven by a change in Census Bureau methodology designed to better capture the influx of humanitarian migrants.  

“Unfortunately, the revised estimates aren’t as positive as they appear,” said Aidan Enright, author of “New 2024 Census Estimates: Surge in Humanitarian Migrants Leads to Population Growth.”  “In terms of economic impact, humanitarian migrants can’t make up for the domestic out-migration of residents who tend to be younger and more affluent.”  

“This is really good news for us,” noted Yvonne Hao, the state’s Secretary for Economic Development.  She expressed “great confidence that we are heading in the right direction.”  

The Census Bureau has recently revised its methodology for population counts. Previously, the Census Bureau relied on the American Community Survey to measure international migration to the U.S.  But the ACS has shortcomings, particularly when it comes to capturing humanitarian migrants.  

Recognizing those limitations, the Census Bureau decided this year to supplement the ACS data with administrative records from the Office of Homeland Security Statistics and U.S. Refugees Admissions Program. The addition of these new sources increased estimates of migration to Massachusetts from abroad by 29,920 in 2022 and 23,963 in 2023, respectively, turning previously negative population growth into positive territory. Only Florida, the District of Columbia and New Jersey had larger upward revisions to their 2020-2023 population estimates.   

As a result, the Census Bureau now estimates that Massachusetts gained 69,603 residents in 2024, with 90,217 net international migrants offsetting a loss of 27,480 to net domestic out-migration.  Another 6,718 were added via natural population change (births minus deaths).  

This surge in net international migrants dwarfs any other year for which data are available.  From 2020 to 2024, Massachusetts’ intake of immigrants as a percentage of its 2020 population was 3.63 percent—more than double the average for all states (1.74 percent).  

Connecting these Census estimates, however they are defined, to empirical data gives further reason to suggest that the optimism of state officials is unwarranted. The newly revised Census Bureau’s estimate also shows a 22,000-person increase in Massachusetts’ overall population in 2022.  Yet in that same year, IRS data—a more accurate benchmark—shows Massachusetts losing nearly $4 billion in adjusted gross income, equivalent to its historic high. 

“State leaders should not read too deeply into trendlines drawn from estimates, which are in turn based on changed definitions of Census data,” said Pioneer Executive Director Jim Stergios. “For years, Massachusetts was recognized nationwide as a magnet for capital and talent. Now we are not, so we need our leaders focused on addressing the reasons why wealth and talent are heading for the exits.”