28.9 percent of the Massachusetts workforce and 24.1 percent of the U.S. workforce have filed unemployment claims over the past eight weeks.

Data released yesterday by the U.S. Department of Labor and the Massachusetts Executive Office of Workforce Development show that 28.9 percent of the Massachusetts workforce and 24.1 percent  of the U.S. workforce have filed unemployment claims over the past eight weeks.

 

The U.S. Department of Labor released its weekly report on jobless claims Thursday morning at 8:30 a.m., reporting that Massachusetts received 44,467 initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims during the week ended May 9. This brings the total of regular UI claims filed in Massachusetts since March 14, the beginning of the unemployment surge, to 826,013.  In addition to these regular unemployment (UI) claims, Massachusetts began taking claims on April 20 for the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program (PUA) authorized by Congress in its $2.2 trillion CARES Act, which extended eligibility to individuals who did not previously qualify for unemployment insurance benefits, including self-employed and contract workers in the so-called gig economy.  From April 20 to May 9, “more than 255,000” filed PUA unemployment claims in Massachusetts, according to a press release issued by the Executive Office of Workforce Development yesterday.

 

In the eight weeks from March 15 to May 9, Massachusetts received a total of 1,081,000 claims for unemployment insurance, including UI and PUA claims. This constitutes 28.9 percent of the total Massachusetts civilian workforce as of March 14, 2020.

 

Figure 1. Massachusetts Unemployment claims filed since March 14, 2020 to May 9, 2020

MA Civilian labor force March 14	3,740,602
Unemployed Individuals March 14	108,619
Initial UI Claims week ending March 21	148,452
Initial UI Claims week ending March 28	181,423
Initial UI Claims week ending April 4	139,647
Initial UI Claims week ending April 11	103,813
Initial UI Claims week ending April 18	80,969
Initial UI Claims week ending April 25	71,358
Initial UI Claims week ending May 2	55,884
Initial UI Claims week ending May 9	44,467
Total Initial UI claims March 14 to May 9	826,013
Total Initial PUA claims March 14 to May 9	255,000
Total Initial UI and PUA claims April 19 to May 9	1,081,013
Total UI and PUA claims March 14 to May 2 as a percentage MA March 14 civilian workforce	28.9%

 

At the national level, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that 2,981,000 seasonally-adjusted unemployment insurance (UI) claims were filed during the week ended May 9. This brings the total of regular UI claims filed since March 14, the beginning of the unemployment surge, to 36,471,000. In addition, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that a total of 2,851,607 claims were filed for the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program within the past four weeks. This brings the number of unemployment claims filed in the U.S. during the past seven weeks to 39,322,607, representing 24.1 percent of the U.S. civilian workforce on March 14.

 

Figure 2. U.S. unemployment claims filed since March 14, 2020

US Civilian labor force March 14	162,913,000
Unemployed Individuals March 14	6,194,000
Initial UI Claims week ending March 21	3,307,000
Initial UI Claims week ending March 28	6,867,000
Initial UI Claims week ending April 4	6,615,000
Initial UI Claims week ending April 11	5,237,000
Initial UI Claims week ending April 18	4,442,000
Initial UI Claims week ending April 25	3,846,000
Initial UI Claims week ending May 2	3,176,000
Initial UI Claims week ending May 9	2,981,000
Total Initial UI claims March 14 to May 2	36,471,000
Initial PUA claims week ending April 18	218,273
Initial PUA claims week ending April 25	788,733
Initial PUA claims week ending May 2	1,002,606
Initial PUA claims week ending May 9	841,995
Total Initial PUA claims through May 9	2,851,607
Total UI and PUA claims March 14 to May 9	39,322,607
Total UI and PUA claims March 14 to May 2 as a percentage US March 14 civilian workforce	24.1%

 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) April unemployment report, which was released on May 8th, estimated that the April unemployment rate was 14.7 percent. The BLS unemployment report is based upon data from surveys that were conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau during the week ended April 18.  Because of the time-lag, the April unemployment report did not reflect 7,015,000 initial unemployment claims that were filed between the time that the survey was conducted and the issuance of the report. 

 

This blog presents the number of UI and PUA claims filed since March 14 in MA and in the U.S. as a percentage of the civilian workforce that existed on March 14. It is unknown how many recent UI and PUA claimants may have given up on looking for a job, which would make them non-countable as unemployed individuals under the federal unemployment rate reporting methodology.  In addition, it is difficult to estimate the real-time unemployment rate because it is currently unknown how many recent unemployment claimants may have returned to their old jobs due to the Payroll Protection Plan included in the $2.2 trillion federal CARES Act or otherwise become re-employed. According to a report written by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the official U.S. unemployment rate for April likely substantially understates job losses from the coronavirus pandemic.

 

On Wednesday, May 13, economists at Goldman Sachs  forecasted that the unemployment rate in the United States will peak at 25%.

 

 

Gregory W. Sullivan is the Research Director at the Pioneer Institute, overseeing the divisions PioneerPublic and PioneerOpportunity. He also previously served as Inspector General of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts for 10 years and in the Massachusetts House of Representatives for 17 years. Mr. Sullivan has a Master’s degree in public administration from the Kennedy School at Harvard University and a second Master’s degree concentrating in finance from the Sloan School at MIT.