32.9 percent of the Massachusetts workforce and 26.2 percent of the U.S. workforce have filed unemployment claims over the past nine weeks.
Data released today by the U.S. Department of Labor and the Massachusetts Executive Office of Workforce Development shows that 32.9 percent of the Massachusetts workforce and 26.2 percent of the U.S. workforce have filed unemployment claims since the COVID-19 unemployment surge began nine weeks ago.
The U.S. Department of Labor released its weekly report on jobless claims this morning at 8:30 a.m., reporting that Massachusetts received 38,323 initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims during the week ended May 16. This brings the total of regular UI claims filed in Massachusetts since March 14, the beginning of the unemployment surge, to 859,587. In addition to these regular unemployment (UI) claims, Massachusetts began taking claims on April 20 for the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program (PUA) authorized by Congress in its $2.2 trillion CARES Act that extended eligibility to individuals who had not previously qualified for unemployment insurance benefits, including self-employed and contract workers in the so-called gig economy. According to a press release issued by the Executive Office of Workforce Development today the total number of PUA claims filed in Massachusetts through May 16 is 371,202.
In total, Massachusetts received 1,230,729 unemployment claims, including both UI and PUA claims, from March 15 to May 16. This constitutes 32.9 percent of the Massachusetts civilian workforce that existed on March 14, 2020, before the unemployment surge began.
Figure 1. Massachusetts Unemployment claims filed since March 14, 2020
| MA Civilian labor force March 14 | 3,740,602 |
| Unemployed Individuals March 14 | 108,619 |
| Initial UI Claims week ended March 21 | 148,452 |
| Initial UI Claims week ended March 28 | 181,423 |
| Initial UI Claims week ended April 4 | 139,647 |
| Initial UI Claims week ended April 11 | 103,813 |
| Initial UI Claims week ended April 18 | 80,969 |
| Initial UI Claims week ended April 25 | 71,358 |
| Initial UI Claims week ended May 2 | 55,884 |
| Initial UI Claims week ended May 9 | 44,915 |
| Initial UI Claims week ended May 16 | 38,328 |
| Total Initial UI claims March 14 to May 16 | 859,587 |
| Total Initial PUA claims April 20 to May 16 | 371,202 |
| Total Initial UI and PUA claims April 19 to May 16 | 1,230,789 |
| Total UI and PUA claims March 14 to May 16 as a percentage of MA March 14 civilian workforce | 32.9% |
At the national level, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that 2,438,000 seasonally-adjusted unemployment insurance (UI) claims were filed in the U.S. during the week ended May 16. This brings the total of regular UI claims filed since March 14, the beginning of the unemployment surge, to 38,615,000.
In addition, the U.S. Department of Labor reported this morning that 2,226,921 claims were filed for the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program in the week ended May 16. Bloomberg News subsequently reported that this number was overstated due to a reporting error by Massachusetts. According to Bloomberg, the 2.23 million reported figure for nationwide PUA claims was likely about half that number in reality. Adjusting to correct the Massachusetts reporting error, 1,158,081 claims were filed for the PUA program in the U.S. in the week ended May 16. This brings the total number of PUA claims filed in the U.S. since the program began five weeks ago to 4,017,877.
Including regular UI claims and PUA claims, 42,632,877 claims have been filed in the U.S. since March 14. This constitutes 26.2 percent of the U.S civilian workforce that existed on March 14, 2020, before the unemployment surge began.
Figure 2. U.S. unemployment claims filed since March 14, 2020
| US Civilian labor force March 14 | 162,913,000 |
| Unemployed Individuals March 14 | 6,194,000 |
| Initial UI Claims week ended March 21 | 3,307,000 |
| Initial UI Claims week ended March 28 | 6,867,000 |
| Initial UI Claims week ended April 4 | 6,615,000 |
| Initial UI Claims week ended April 11 | 5,237,000 |
| Initial UI Claims week ended April 18 | 4,442,000 |
| Initial UI Claims week ended April 25 | 3,846,000 |
| Initial UI Claims week ended May 2 | 3,176,000 |
| Initial UI Claims week ended May 9 | 2,687,000 |
| Initial UI Claims week ended May 16 | 2,438,000 |
| Total Initial UI claims March 14 to May 16 | 38,615,000 |
| Initial PUA claims week ended April 18 | 218,273 |
| Initial PUA claims week ended April 25 | 788,733 |
| Initial PUA claims week ended May 2 | 1,002,606 |
| Initial PUA claims week ended May 9 | 850,184 |
| Initial PUA claims week ended May 16 (adjusted) | 1,158,081 |
| Total Initial PUA claims through May 16 | 4,017,877 |
| Total UI and PUA claims March 14 to May 16 | 42,632,877 |
| Total UI and PUA claims March 14 to May 16 as a percentage of U.S. March 14 civilian workforce | 26.2% |
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) April unemployment report, which was released on May 8th, estimated that the April unemployment rate in the U.S. was 14.7 percent. The BLS unemployment report is based upon data from surveys that were conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau during the week ended April 18. Because of the time-lag, the April unemployment report did not reflect 7,015,000 initial unemployment claims that were filed between the time that the survey was conducted and the issuance of the report.
This blog presents the number of UI and PUA claims filed since March 14 in Massachusetts and in the U.S. as a percentage of the civilian workforce that existed on March 14. It is unknown how many recent UI and PUA claimants may have given up looking for a job, which would make them non-countable as unemployed individuals under the federal unemployment rate reporting methodology. In addition, it does not reflect how many recent unemployment claimants have returned to their old jobs due to the Payroll Protection Plan included in the $2.2 trillion federal CARES Act or otherwise become re-employed. According to a report written by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the official U.S. unemployment rate for April likely substantially understates job losses from the coronavirus pandemic.
On Wednesday, May 13, economists at Goldman Sachs forecasted that the unemployment rate in the United States will peak at 25%.
Gregory W. Sullivan is the Research Director at the Pioneer Institute, overseeing the divisions PioneerPublic and PioneerOpportunity. He also previously served as Inspector General of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts for 10 years and in the Massachusetts House of Representatives for 17 years. Mr. Sullivan has a Master’s degree in public administration from the Kennedy School at Harvard University and a second Master’s degree concentrating in finance from the Sloan School at MIT.
