38.8 percent of the Massachusetts workforce and 28.3 percent of the U.S. workforce have filed unemployment claims over the past ten weeks.

Data released today by the U.S. Department of Labor shows that 38.8 percent of the Massachusetts workforce and 28.3 percent of the U.S. workforce have filed unemployment claims since the COVID-19 unemployment surge began ten weeks ago.

 

The U.S. Department of Labor released its weekly report on jobless claims this morning at 8:30 a.m., reporting that Massachusetts received 37,740 initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims during the week ended May 23. This brings the total of regular UI claims filed in Massachusetts since March 14, the beginning of the unemployment surge, to 902,885.  In addition to these regular unemployment (UI) claims, Massachusetts began taking claims on April 20 for the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program (PUA) authorized by Congress in its $2.2 trillion CARES Act that extended eligibility to individuals who had not previously qualified for unemployment insurance benefits, including self-employed and contract workers in the so-called gig economy. According to a press release issued by the Executive Office of Workforce Development on May 21, a total of 371,202 claimants filed for PUA between April 20 and May 16.  Today’s U.S. Department of Labor weekly report on jobless claims shows that Massachusetts received an additional 147,594 PUA claims during the week ended May 23, bringing the total number of Massachusetts PUA claims to 518,796 since the program began.

 In total, Massachusetts has received a total of 1,421,681 unemployment claims from March 15 to May 23, including both UI and PUA claims. This constitutes 38.8 percent of the Massachusetts civilian workforce that existed on March 14, 2020, before the unemployment surge began.

 

Figure 1. Massachusetts Unemployment claims filed since March 14, 2020 

MA Civilian labor force March 14	3,665,047
Unemployed Individuals March 14	106,920
Initial UI Claims week ended March 21	148,452
Initial UI Claims week ended March 28	181,423
Initial UI Claims week ended April 4	139,647
Initial UI Claims week ended April 11	103,813
Initial UI Claims week ended April 18	80,969
Initial UI Claims week ended April 25	71,358
Initial UI Claims week ended May 2	55,884
Initial UI Claims week ended May 9	44,915
Initial UI Claims week ended May 16	38,684
Initial UI Claims week ended May 23	37,740
Total Initial UI claims March 14 to May 23	902,885
Total Initial PUA claims April 20 to May 23	518,796
Total Initial UI and PUA claims April 19 to May 23	1,421,681
Total UI and PUA claims March 14 to May 23 as a percentage of the MA March 14 civilian workforce	38.8%

 

At the national level, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that 2,123,000 seasonally-adjusted unemployment insurance (UI) claims were filed in the U.S. during the week ended May 23. This brings the total of regular UI claims filed since March 14, the beginning of the unemployment surge, to 40,746,000.  

 

In addition, the U.S. Department of Labor reported this morning that 1,192,616 claims were filed for the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program in the week ended May 23. This brings the total number of PUA claims filed in the U.S. since the program began five weeks ago to 5,299,283.

Including both regular UI claims and PUA claims, 46,045,283 claims have been filed in the U.S. between March 14 and May 23. This constitutes 28.3 percent of the U.S civilian workforce that existed on March 14, 2020, before the unemployment surge began.

 

Figure 2. U.S. unemployment claims filed since March 14, 2020

US Civilian labor force March 14	162,913,000
Unemployed Individuals March 14	6,194,000
Initial UI Claims week ended March 21	3,307,000
Initial UI Claims week ended March 28	6,867,000
Initial UI Claims week ended April 4	6,615,000
Initial UI Claims week ended April 11	5,237,000
Initial UI Claims week ended April 18	4,442,000
Initial UI Claims week ended April 25	3,846,000
Initial UI Claims week ended May 2	3,176,000
Initial UI Claims week ended May 9	2,687,000
Initial UI Claims week ended May 16	2,446,000
Initial UI Claims week ended May 23	2,123,000
Total Initial UI claims March 14 to May 23	40,746,000
Initial PUA claims week ended April 18	218,273
Initial PUA claims week ended April 25	788,733
Initial PUA claims week ended May 2	1,002,606
Initial PUA claims week ended May 9	850,184
Initial PUA claims week ended May 16	1,246,871
Initial PUA claims week ended May 23	1,192,616
Total Initial PUA claims through May 23	5,299,283
Total UI and PUA claims March 14 to May 23	46,045,283
Total UI and PUA claims March 14 to May 23 as a percentage of the US March 14 civilian workforce	28.3%

 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) April unemployment report, which was released on May 8th, estimated that the April unemployment rate in the U.S. was 14.7 percent. The BLS unemployment report is based upon data collected from surveys that were conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau during the week ended April 18.  Because of the reporting time-lag, the April unemployment report did not reflect 7,015,000 initial unemployment claims that had been filed between the time that the survey was conducted and the issuance of the BLS April unemployment report on May 8th.  In total, 14,278,000 UI claims and 5,081,010 PUA claims have been filed in the U.S. since the U.S. Census Bureau conducted its survey during the week ended April 18 that it used to estimate an April unemployment rate of 14.7 percent. These 19,359,010 unemployment claims constitute the equivalent of 11.9 percent of the U.S. civilian workforce that existed on March 14, before the unemployment surge began.   

Today, Fortune Magazine’s Lance Lambert opined:  “Another week with unemployment claims topping 2.1 million means the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ 14.7% official unemployment rate appears even more out of touch with the real jobless rate. Since mid-April—the period covered by the BLS unemployment rate—another 14.3 million Americans have claimed unemployment benefits. When those 14.3 million are added to the already 23.1 million unemployed Americans in the latest jobs reports, it brings the total jobless over 37.4 million. That would be a real unemployment rate of 23.9%, closing in on the Great Depression peak of 25.6%.”

This blog presents the number of UI and PUA claims filed since March 14 in Massachusetts and in the U.S. as a percentage of the civilian workforce that existed on March 14. It is unknown how many recent UI and PUA claimants may have given up looking for a job, which would make them non-countable as unemployed individuals under the federal unemployment rate reporting methodology.  In addition, it does not reflect how many recent unemployment claimants have returned to their old jobs due to the Payroll Protection Plan included in the $2.2 trillion federal CARES Act or otherwise become re-employed. According to a report written by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the official U.S. unemployment rate for April likely substantially understates job losses from the coronavirus pandemic. On Wednesday, May 13, economists at Goldman Sachs forecasted that the unemployment rate in the United States will peak at 25%.

 

Gregory W. Sullivan is the Research Director at the Pioneer Institute, overseeing the divisions PioneerPublic and PioneerOpportunity. He also previously served as Inspector General of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts for 10 years and in the Massachusetts House of Representatives for 17 years. Mr. Sullivan has a Master’s degree in public administration from the Kennedy School at Harvard University and a second Master’s degree concentrating in finance from the Sloan School at MIT.