The Paradox of Justice in the Commonwealth: A Deeper Look at Massachusetts Incarceration Rates
At first glance, Massachusetts appears to be a national model for criminal justice reform, boasting both the nation’s lowest incarceration rate and a low crime rate. However, a deeper look at the numbers in US DataLabs reveals a surprising paradox: Massachusetts also has one of the highest rates of life sentences in the country—and leads the nation in the percentage of life sentences without parole.
Figure 1: US and New England Prison Populations, 1980-2022
Figure 1 above displays national and New England statistics on prison population from 1980-2022. The US prison population increased for years until 2009, and has since decreased slowly, including a significant decrease in 2020 due to covid-related factors. New England has generally followed this trend, increasing its prison population generally before experiencing a consistent decline from 2009 to 2022. Violent crime in Massachusetts declined by 29.8 percent from 2009 to 2022, a steep drop that both reflects and reinforces the declining incarceration rate.
Figure 2: National Prison Incarceration Rate per 100k Population, 2022 
Figure 2 displays per capita incarceration rates across the United States, with notable regional differences—particularly in the New England. The region contains five of the six states with the lowest incarceration rates in the country, and Massachusetts has the lowest rate overall. According to US census data, the national incarceration rate in 2022 was about 356 per 100,000 people, almost four times more than Massachusetts’ rate of 94 per 100,000.
Figure 3: Percentage of Prisoners Serving Life Sentences with and without Parole in New England, 2022
Massachusetts inmates are more likely to be serving life sentences than in other states. In 2022, 27 percent of prisoners in Massachusetts were serving life sentences, which is third in the nation. Furthermore, at 14 percent of all prisoners, Massachusetts has the highest percentage of prisoners serving life sentences without the possibility of parole. Figure 3 demonstrates how Massachusetts sharply diverges from its regional peers, showing this is a state trend and not a regional one. Possible reasons for this include the statistics being slightly inflated due to low overall prisoner numbers, getting rid of the death penalty in 1984, an aging prison population of lifers, harsh sentencing of youth offenders, and the fact that Massachusetts is one of very few states to mandate life without parole for first degree murder.
However, there has been growing state-level momentum to address the issues with life sentences, youth offenders, and parole and rehabilitation opportunities in Massachusetts. For example, in 2024 the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court banned life without parole sentences for any individuals under 21, becoming the first state to do so.
Furthermore, there have been increasing discussions in the state Legislature of bills such as S1178 and H1797, which target incarceration reform, although overall progress has been slow. However, the issue of life sentences is national in scope, as one in six people currently in US prisons are lifers, representing 40 percent of the global population serving life sentences. Furthermore, human rights groups have condemned life sentences without parole as tantamount to torture, and the US holds 83 percent of the world’s population who are serving prison sentences of life without parole.
It will be interesting to see how Massachusetts prisoner statistics change in the next 10-15 years, as incarceration rates typically take a while to adjust based on earlier policy changes. Maintaining a low incarceration rate should be a continuing goal, but the next step is to reduce the percentage of prisoners serving life sentences, whether that be by paroling those who have been rehabilitated or by focusing on sentencing changes that condemn fewer individuals to life in prison.
Andrew Harding is a Roger Perry Government Transparency Intern with the Pioneer Institute. He is a rising senior at Connecticut College, with a double major in Government and Educational Studies. Feel free to contact via email, LinkedIn, or writing a letter to Pioneer’s office.
