AGI Growth in the Last Decade: The Winning and Losing States 

Want to make $1 million every year? The good news is that your chances are much better now than they were 10 years ago. Using Pioneer Institute’s US DataLabs Economy and Taxation applications, you can see just how many more people are making $1 million than were 10 years ago, and where they reside, using the information most recently available from the IRS. 

In 2012, the US GDP was about $16.2 trillion. By 2022, it blossomed to $25.7 trillion, a 59 percent increase. This led to a dramatic shift in people making over $1 million in adjusted gross income (AGI). In 2012, there were almost 386,000 tax returns with AGI over $1 million. By 2022, the amount more than doubled to almost 791,000 returns.  

But not every state has added $1 million earners at the same rate.  Not surprisingly, larger states in terms of population and GDP were the winners. California, Florida, Texas, and New York have added the first, second, third, and fourth most of these high earners since 2012.  Of the four, Florida added the highest percentage of those with $1 million AGI, increasing from 28,420 in 2012 to 77,670 in 2022, a 173 percent increase and ranking sixth in the country during this period.  

There were multiple reasons for Florida’s growth. First, the state is a leader in domestic migration, bringing in high net worth individuals from the northeast due to lower taxes and lifestyle factors. Another reason is that Florida, unlike most states, did not shut down completely during the pandemic, allowing its economy to bounce back more quickly than states that did shut down. 

If Florida ranked sixth in the percentage increase of millionaires from 2012 to 2022, who were the top five? In order, they were Idaho, Montana, Utah, Arizona, and South Carolina. Idaho led the nation with million-dollar earners growing 235 percent, increasing from 1,020 to 3,420 returns over the 10 years. Idaho’s population in general grew by 343,000 during the decade to just over 1.9 million, a 22 percent hike. As a result, the civilian labor force increased by 23.1 percent and nonfarm employment grew by 17.9 percent.  

Montana went from 790 to 2,320 returns of over $1 million AGI between 2012 and 2022, a 194 percent increase. Like Idaho, Montana has a relatively small population, and it didn’t grow nearly as much as Idaho’s. So even though Montana’s labor force didn’t grow as quickly, the state still saw a large percentage change in returns of over $1 million AGI.  One reason may be found in a report by Montana’s Budget and Policy Center that lists Montana as the state with the largest income inequality change from 2010 to 2016. Over those six years, income inequality increased by 4.97 percent. This is also evident by looking through Montana’s tax return data from 2012 compared to 2022. In 2012, the middle earning groups made up more of the state’s total percentage of income than in 2022. This rise in economic inequality was caused by nonwage income like real estate investments and capital gains, making up a larger share of Montana’s economy. A large portion of these income sources relate to higher-income households, playing a large part in the income inequality growth. 

While high earners in states like Idaho and Montana shared much of the country’s overall economic improvement from 2012 through 2022, Alaska, North Dakota, and West Virginia added the fewest $1 million AGI returns. All three finished in the bottom 10 states in percentage change as well, with North Dakota finishing dead last with a 31 percent increase, with 1,240 returns with AGI of over $1 million in 2012 compared to 1,620 returns in 2022. North Dakota’s struggle can be attributed to a decline in oil production, which had been a major driver of economic output prior to this period. Other states that finished at the bottom in percent increase were Oklahoma and Louisiana, with 38 percent and 40 percent new $1 million AGI returns, respectively, over the 10 years. These states also rely heavily on the oil industry and were faced with natural disasters like hurricanes and tornadoes at a higher rate than other states. 

This decade from 2012 through 2022 revealed true winning and losing states at creating additional high-earners. States with growing populations, favorable tax policies, and diversified economies were the biggest winners over this period. States who were heavily dependent on fewer industries like oil struggled to keep pace with these more economically diverse states. These trends suggest that states looking to boost their economy should focus on policies that attract new residents and businesses, while attempting to diversify and develop new industries that have better opportunities for growth than existing industries. Looking ahead, the economic landscape in the United States will continue to reward states that embrace innovation and development over those that primarily rely on their economic roots. 

Trey Adrian was a Government Data Analytics Intern in winter/spring 2025. He majored in Finance and Applied Statistics at Fairfield University where he earned a Masters in Business Administration in 2025.